Poker is a game based on information availability. We don’t ever know for sure how good or bad another player’s hand is, often until it’s too late. But because poker is a game of human interaction, we sometimes receive clues from other players, based on changes in their betting patterns or their physical demeanour, which indicates the strength or weakness of their hand. These are called “poker tells”.
A player gains an advantage if he observes and understands the meaning of another player’s tell, particularly if the poker tell is unconscious and reliable. Sometimes a player may even fake a tell, hoping to induce his opponents to make poor judgments in response to the false poker tell. After all, poker is a game of deception.
Oct 15, 2019 How to Bluff in Poker - Steps Understand the stakes. Understand how to read the tells. Develop the proverbial poker face. Begin bluffing. Count how many players are betting in the hand., or raise someone else's bet, in the first round of betting, before the flop. Consider checking when good. If I rarely or never check a hand stronger than AT on the river, then I know that I have to call sometimes with AT or a comparable bluff-catcher to avoid being exploited by bluffs. The math behind my optimal bluff-catching frequency isn’t hard: it’s just the size of the pot divided by the sum of the pot plus the river bet, or Pot/ (Bet + Pot).
Poker tells come in two forms;
Betting patterns are the most dependable poker tells. By studying the way a player bets both past and present, you will have more information and be better able to judge whether to check or bet. Betting patterns will remain your main tells.
Physical tells, many of which are dramatized in movies and television, are the most fun and will be the focus of this lesson.
Obviously these are only applicable to live poker, where they can help a player win some crucial pots over a lifetime. Unless you are a savant, learning and analyzing a cluster of tells does take some work.
What makes tells hard to implement is the way they vary from player to player. For example, a player may throw his chips into the pot with force, and then leave his hands out near the action. For most players this means a big hand, for other players, it is a bluff. Some poker tells are false, many are contradictory, and some are just downright unreliable. There is no magic to it.
As you make observation a habit, you will learn to sift through these multiple tells and notice that the first tell is very often genuine, and the shortest tell is the most reliable. Most long, drawn out tells are false, set up to confuse. We have all seen a Hollywood tell as someone makes a screwed up face of displeasure and then bets! The general rule is that weakness usually means strength, and strength usually means weakness. But, you must decide how much weight to give a tell at any given moment. If you make learning tells fun, it will be an ever-changing, exciting part of your poker arsenal.
There are many types of poker tells. The lists that follow in this lesson should only be used as a general guide. The reliability of each varies, and guessing the reliability of each poker tell is an art form. Many tells mean strong with one player and weak with another, it is up to you to tell the difference by being observant.
Remember, some of these poker tells are more reliable than others. While most poker experts suggest you watch your opponent’s eyes, I suggest looking at his hands. That trembling hand syndrome is usually the sign of a good hand, and it’s the kind of tell that can’t easily be controlled either, so it’s generally reliable.
That’s quite a list. Pick a few and see if you can spot any tells next time you play live poker. Now let’s look at some of the fundamentals to successfully spotting tells and other factors you need to consider.
It’s important to recognize that beginners will not go to great lengths to confuse you with reverse tells. Don’t read too much into their bet timing or the body language they are giving off. If you are going to look for tells, just know that the most obvious ones are going to be the most accurate.
Since you can’t physically see your opponents when playing online, the physical tells we’ve mentioned are clearly not going to apply. Remember though, that betting patterns are the most reliable of all poker tells. Look out for changes in a player’s betting pattern and observe their timing. A large amount of time before calling can sometimes mean a weak hand, and a fast call usually means a drawing hand. However, timing tells aren’t always reliable, since for all you know the online player is also reading a book, watching TV, or rushing back from the bathroom.
Looking for poker tells does not come naturally for most of us. But, after a while you will observe the flow and motion of the table, sifting through countless confusing bits of information, calculating whether to check or bet, all the while relaxing, having fun, talking, ordering drinks, and doing some cheap chip tricks. Once you learn to read the cards (mathematical odds and technical aspect) what is left? Reading people!
You can’t study everyone and everything at once. So focus attention on individual players during your poker session, and never fail to watch a showdown while replaying what you observed during the hand and correlate it with the hands the combatants turn up. The very best time to study your opponents is when they’re involved in a hand and you’re not.
Practice is the key to reading any tell. Whether you are a trained observer in poker or a trained criminal scene investigator (CSI), the key word is trained. Learning the poker tells listed above all at one time is difficult. It is more fun to learn a couple every time you play. For an example, one night at your casino, home or bar game pick a player and watch his energy levels. While he won’t go from nearly comatose to sitting bolt upright in his seat, most players do shuffle around in their chair and sit upright when they have a good hand – or at least a hand they intend to play. Watch everyone’s posture all night and it will become a habit and you will ‘train’ yourself to be observant at the table.
Another way to train yourself is to observe just one or two players for the first 10 minutes and then gradually add other players to the mix. Start with the player closest to you, because they are the ones that affect your play the most. For instance, can you tell if the players to your left are going to fold or raise? Can you tell if the opponents on your immediate right are calling with a big hand or just want to see a cheap flop? Here’s a tip – players with cards cocked in their hand who look like they’re ready to pitch them to the dealer when it’s their turn to act usually do just that. It’s not a universal poker tell, but it’s accurate more often than not.
You do not want to give off tells, so watch yourself. Do you lean toward the action when you have a good hand? Try this – when you have a marginal hand (such as JT on the button) sit up in your chair, be obvious, squirm around a little, raise the pot, and look at the other players. Notice who looks at you. You just gave them a false tell. They think you have a big hand. Bet the flop and watch them fold. Note which players are not sophisticated enough to notice your Academy Award performance, and be aware of the players that do not ’seem’ to notice but are thinking, was that for real, and who is this hot dog.
Some poker players spend way too much time searching for unconscious poker tells and greatly overestimate there importance. Every poker player knows that they are supposed to hide their emotions and disguise their true intentions. Even people who don’t play poker know this. Sure, some players will exhibit obvious physical tells from time to time, but the conscious things that poker players do at the table are of far greater significance.
Focus on the bigger picture first and categorize your opponents. Are they tight-aggressive? Are they loose-passive? How tricky are they? Putting players into broad categories that define their playing style and tendencies will help you far more than concentrating on the small and unconscious things.
Physical poker tells are nowhere near as important as studying betting patterns and playing styles. Once you have mastered these then, and only then should you look for the classic poker tells that many players exhibit. But tells are fun, and very few players concentrate on this part of the game – so you will have an advantage. Granted, poker tells will not make you money on every hand or every hour, but over time, they will add to your profitability. In any business, if you could increase profits you’d be very happy.
By David Sasseman
David lives in Atlanta, Georgia, and has played over a million hands online and many thousands of hands in Mississippi, Louisiana, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, and Las Vegas casinos.
By Andrew Brokos
Introduction
I had a nightmare last night that I was playing high-stakes heads up no-limit hold ’em with Phil Ivey himself. I knew he had picked up a tell on me that revealed the approximate strength of my hand as strong, marginal, or weak, but I didn’t know what it was or how to stop doing it.
The river had just completed a possible flush, and the final board read 5 [spade] 8 [diamond] T [spade] Q [heart] 2 [spade]. I was holding A [spade] T [heart] and checked. Phil gave me that look, like he’d just spotted my tell, and then announced, “All in.” The dealer counted the bet down: $14,000 even, into a pot of just $6000. Somehow, I managed to have the Great One covered. But could I call this bet?
Optimal Calling Frequency
OK, I don’t really dream about poker. At least not that vividly. But it’s a good example of a nightmare situation, facing a big bet on the river when your hand is clearly defined as good but not great. Unless you have some exploitable read on your opponent that he either bluffs too much or not enough, then your best defense in a situation like this is to use game theory to make your decision.
Let’s assume that this river overbet represents either a flush or a bluff. The real Ivey is probably good enough that his game can’t be pigeonholed so neatly, but this is my nightmare, and I make the rules. Is he going to bluff all of his air to make me fold one pair? Is he never going to bluff because he knows I know he knows I only have one pair and he expects me to expect him to bluff? He’s Ivey and I’m lowly old me, so I’m going to abandon any pretense of outthinking or outplaying him.
In a situation where I beat all of his bluffs and none of his value hands, I’m going to call with a frequency such that it doesn’t matter what he does. In fact, I could show him my hand, tell him what percentage of the time I’m going to call, and there would still be nothing he could do to take advantage of me. I need to find the calling frequency such that whether he bluffs 100%, 0%, or anywhere in between, it makes no difference to my bottom line.
To do this, I have to figure out what calling frequency will make Ivey indifferent to bluffing with this bet. He is risking $14,000 to win $6000, so his Expected Value (EV) for a bluff is equal to -14000 (x) + 6000 (1-x), where x is my calling frequency. We want to solve for x such that his EV will be 0, so
0 = -14000 (x) + 6000 (1-x)
0 = -14000x + 6000 – 6000x
0 = 6000 – 20000x
20000x = 6000
x = 6000/20000, or 30%.
One way to prevent Ivey from exploiting me with a bluff in this situation is to use a random number generator to call with an arbitrary 30% of my bluff-catching range. Dan Harrington recommends the second hand of a watch for this purpose. Any time I have a hand that can only beat a bluff, I check my watch. If the second hand is at 18 or lower, I call. Otherwise, I fold.
Again, even if Ivey knows that I am doing this, there is nothing he can do to exploit me. If he bluffs more, I catch him just often enough. If he bluffs less, then he misses out on just enough pots that he could have stolen from me.
Blockers
That’s one method, anyway. If I know that I need to call 30% of the time, then I can call with each of my bluff-catchers 30% of the time.
But not all bluff-catchers are created equal. In this example, there is a big difference between my hand, which is A [spade] T [heart], and the nearly identical A [heart] T [heart]. Can you see what it is?
When I have the A [spade], Ivey has fewer flush combinations that he could be value betting. The equation we looked at above is just the EV of Ivey’s bluffs. Since I never have a hand stronger than a flush, his value bets are always going to be profitable. My EV on the river is going to be equal to the amount I win by catching his bluffs minus the amount I lose by calling his value bets.
The A [spade] in my hand removes twelve combinations of flushes from my opponent’s range. When I call with A [spade] T [heart], I will run into a flush a lot less often than when I call with A [heart] T [heart]. Thus, even though both hands beat all bluffs and lose to all flushes, one of them will be shown a flush far less often and is thus a far superior candidate for bluff-catching.
I will have the A [spade] 25% of the time that I have AT. Since it is a better bluff-catcher than my other AT combinations, I want to call with it over the others whenever possible. Thus, I should call 100% of the time that I have A [spade] T and use a random number generator to call 5% of the time that I have any other AT combination, so that I am still catching bluffs 30% of the time but paying off value bets as infrequently as possible.
Hand Strength
This, then, is one of the characteristics of a good bluff-catcher: it has blockers to my opponent’s value betting range.
Another important characteristic is that a bluff-catching hand should be able to beat all of your opponent’s bluffs. That may seem obvious, but I’ve had a river bluff called by a hand that I beat on more than one occasion.
In this example, since we don’t expect Ivey to be value betting one-pair, it may seem like AT and 33 are functionally the same hand. The catch is that Ivey could be bluffing one-pair. What a disaster it would be to “correctly” snap off a bluff only to find that he was turning 66 into a bluff and just took you to Valuetown, completely by accident!
Stronger hands are also better if there’s any chance of beating a hand that your opponent is betting for value. As I said before, Ivey is an extremely good player, so he might try to confound all of this reasoning by betting a hand like KT for value. Even if I don’t think that’s likely, all other things being equal, I might as well call with AT rather than 33 just in case.
Practice Avoidance
The best tactic of all for dealing with a situation like this is to avoid it altogether. You never want to be in a spot where your hand is as clearly defined as mine is in this example. Hopefully you do not regularly compete against opponents with reads as rock-solid as those of Nightmare Phil Ivey, but you should still be careful about avoiding situations where your range contains nothing stronger than bluff-catchers.
We don’t know the action leading up to the river in this hand, but let’s say that I bet the turn with my top pair, top kicker, and then checked the scare card on the river. That’s a fine way to play it as long as I’m also capable of checking a strong hand like the nut flush in the same spot. Doing so won’t prevent Ivey from value betting or bluffing, but it will make both of these plays less profitable.
By the way, if I were capable of showing up with a value hand when Ivey shoves the river, I would need to adjust my bluff-catching frequency accordingly. For example, if 10% of my range were flushes and the rest were AT, then I would only need to call with AT 20% of the time, since my overall calling frequency still needs to be at 30% to prevent exploitation from bluffing. That means I’d never want to call with any non-spade AT, and even with the A [spade], I’d only need to call 89% of the time.
Where did that number come from? When flushes are 10% of my range, AT is the other 90%. One-fourth of those AT combinations include the A [spade], so overall A [spade] T is 22.5% of my range. But I only need another 20% worth of calls, so I don’t want to call every time I have the A [spade], and 20/22.5 is approximately 89%. To translate that into seconds on a wristwatch, multiply by 60 to get approximately 53.
Real-Time Decision Making
You’re probably wondering what good all of these calculations are going to do you at the table. Well, we practice this kind of mathematical precision away from the table so that our understanding and our instincts are better when tough spots arise in live games. Even if we aren’t able to be quite so precise in the real world, we can use our understanding to make good approximations.
If I really found myself in this situation, the first question I’d ask myself is how the hand I’m holding compares to all of the other hands I would have played in the same way. If I rarely or never check a hand stronger than AT on the river, then I know that I have to call sometimes with AT or a comparable bluff-catcher to avoid being exploited by bluffs.
The math behind my optimal bluff-catching frequency isn’t hard: it’s just the size of the pot divided by the sum of the pot plus the river bet, or Pot/ (Bet + Pot). Once I know that I need to call 30% of the time, I think about my range and try to decide what are the best 30% of hands that I could have in this situation for catching a bluff?
Remember our criteria for a good bluff-catcher: (1) able to beat all of the hands he could be bluffing with; (2) blocks some portion of the opponent’s value betting range; (3) possibly even ahead of a thin value bet. If all I can ever have in this spot is AT, then even without doing any math I can recognize that a hand with a spade is a much better bluff-catcher than the alternatives. Calling when I have a spade and folding when I don’t would be a very close approximation to the optimal solution, costing me only about $300 in EV for the 5% of the time that he gets away with stealing a $6000 pot.
Playing high-stakes heads up no-limit hold ’em with Phil Ivey and losing no more than $300… now that’s a dream come true!